collected by :Jack Luxor
Block said there was a reason Trump on Friday announced plans to discuss tax reform Wednesday. It happens on the anniversary of his 100 days. "We think markets are overly pessimistic on the odds of something ultimately getting done, and we do think there's a lot of will in Washington to try to deliver on some type of tax reform. They're going to have a lot of very bad headlines over the next week over the government shutdown," he said. "I think his hundred days is up, and from a symbolic standpoint, he's trying to get an outline out there within 100 days," said Peter Boockvar, chief market analyst with the Lindsey Group.
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Polls indicate Macron would stand a better chance than Fillon of winning a second-round battle versus Le Pen or Melenchon. But an outcome pitting Macron against either Le Pen or Melenchon may also be seen as a positive, Winer said. "Such an outcome will result in chaotic markets, with European bonds and equities selling off, euro plunging. Jaffee and Winer both agreed the most positive outcome for markets would be if the runoff pitted Emmanuel Macron against François Fillon, both centrist career politicians. Analysts agree that the worst-case scenario for stocks and other assets perceived as risky would be a runoff pitting far-right nationalist Marine Le Pen versus left-wing firebrand Jean-Luc Melenchon.
Next best for markets would be that both of those candidates are the choices heading into the second vote. "All the polls show Le Pen and Macron in the top two, and the polls may differ on how close it is. Fillon would be second most likely, with a 30 percent probability, and Le Pen's odds are about 25 percent. With markets stalled out ahead of Sunday's French vote, the postelection scenarios are as extreme as the candidates and could continue for weeks, depending on the outcome. Right now, it looks like it will end up being Le Pen and Macron battling it out in the second round with the latter winning, analysts say.
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Block said there was a reason Trump on Friday announced plans to discuss tax reform Wednesday. It happens on the anniversary of his 100 days. "We think markets are overly pessimistic on the odds of something ultimately getting done, and we do think there's a lot of will in Washington to try to deliver on some type of tax reform. They're going to have a lot of very bad headlines over the next week over the government shutdown," he said. "I think his hundred days is up, and from a symbolic standpoint, he's trying to get an outline out there within 100 days," said Peter Boockvar, chief market analyst with the Lindsey Group.
referring to
Here's how the French election could test the U.S. stock market's resilience
Polls indicate Macron would stand a better chance than Fillon of winning a second-round battle versus Le Pen or Melenchon. But an outcome pitting Macron against either Le Pen or Melenchon may also be seen as a positive, Winer said. "Such an outcome will result in chaotic markets, with European bonds and equities selling off, euro plunging. Jaffee and Winer both agreed the most positive outcome for markets would be if the runoff pitted Emmanuel Macron against François Fillon, both centrist career politicians. Analysts agree that the worst-case scenario for stocks and other assets perceived as risky would be a runoff pitting far-right nationalist Marine Le Pen versus left-wing firebrand Jean-Luc Melenchon.
Next best for markets would be that both of those candidates are the choices heading into the second vote. "All the polls show Le Pen and Macron in the top two, and the polls may differ on how close it is. Fillon would be second most likely, with a 30 percent probability, and Le Pen's odds are about 25 percent. With markets stalled out ahead of Sunday's French vote, the postelection scenarios are as extreme as the candidates and could continue for weeks, depending on the outcome. Right now, it looks like it will end up being Le Pen and Macron battling it out in the second round with the latter winning, analysts say.
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